US President Donald Trump indicated the possibility of further military operations against Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export hub, claiming previous strikes had significantly damaged its infrastructure.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
'Even if the war ends tomorrow, which is unlikely, and we go back to the pre-war status quo, the world will still need some time to get over the sudden shock of oil price increases.'
A media report indicates the White House was directly involved in crafting a social media post by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, requesting then-US President Donald Trump to extend the deadline on Iran.
According to the report, the Pentagon is deploying the USS Tripoli ARG, along with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), part of its own strike group.
'On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.'
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that discussions aimed at halting the conflict with Iran have shown "some slight progress," while simultaneously echoing Washington's dissatisfaction with its NATO allies.
Indian companies, however, are now paying a premium of $6-$7 a barrel for Russian oil, compared with discounts of $8-$10 a barrel before the start of the conflict.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
A Financial Times report reveals Pakistan's crucial role in brokering a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, driven by White House concerns over rising oil prices and Iran's resilience.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The core issues to be settled -- access to Hormuz, Israel's aggression in Lebanon, the question of Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief and compensation -- are thorny enough to require weeks of patient negotiation. The most likely outcome of the opening sessions is that both sides take the measure of each other, establish what is and is not negotiable, and return home without having broken anything. That would count as progress.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the country has held no "direct" talks with the United States as of now and added that it has received messages through some mediators regarding the US' desire for negotiations.
Yousef Pezeshkian, the son of the Iranian President, has confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is 'safe and sound'. This comes after certain reports claimed that he had been injured during the ongoing strikes by the United States and Israel, according to Al Jazeera.
India possesses two months of fuel stockpiles and faces no supply concerns despite global energy disruptions, according to Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri. However, state-run fuel retailers are incurring losses of up to Rs 1 lakh crore in a single quarter due to elevated crude prices and unchanged retail fuel prices, raising questions about the sustainability of these losses.
'US and Iran have not annulled the ceasefire, and the possibility of continuing negotiations remains open.'
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
Delhi must now purge the delusional hopes of being a 'counterweight' to China in the US calculus, argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher, with the Sensex climbing 355.90 points, driven by positive state election results and better-than-expected Q4 earnings, despite ongoing geopolitical concerns.
V D Satheesan was sworn in as Kerala's Chief Minister, with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar administering the oath of office. The swearing-in ceremony was attended by prominent political figures, including Congress leaders and Chief Ministers of Congress-ruled states.
Amidst rising Middle East tensions, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar highlights India's strategic dialogue with Iran to safeguard maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring India's energy security and continued oil trade.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Wednesday claimed that Tehran "begged" for a truce, maintaining that Washington achieved a "decisive military victory" during 'Operation Epic Fury.'
The Iranian Foreign Ministry has stated that Tehran currently has no plans for a subsequent round of negotiations with the United States, according to the state media Tasnim news agency. This announcement comes as international mediators had hoped for a follow-up to the Islamabad talks before the looming ceasefire deadline.
'Despite the large number of missiles and drones we have already launched, we still possess reserves and missile cities whose doors have not yet been opened,' says Iran's Consul-General Saeid Reza Mosayeb Motlagh.
Chaffing under public ridicule in the US as well as internationally for having 'lost' the war, Trump is under immense pressure to do something, cautions Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
18 Indian-flagged vessels with 485 Indian seafarers still remain in the western Persian Gulf region
US President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing to discuss trade, technology, Taiwan, and the Iran war. Xi Jinping said that 2026 will be a 'historic, landmark year' for China-US relations.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
India should not stay on the margins of this initiative. There should be a serious debate about what would be in India's best interests asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
An Iranian delegation, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is expected to arrive in Islamabad for the second round of peace talks with the US, according to Pakistani media reports. This follows a phone call between Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar and Araghchi regarding the US-Iran ceasefire and Pakistan's diplomatic efforts.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'Iran cannot trust the USA because it considers the USA to be Israel-controlled. And no, the IRGC is not going to accept anything else but major US concessions.'
Argentina has significantly increased its LPG exports to India to help mitigate shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in West Asia. This partnership is becoming increasingly important for India's energy security.
'What exactly is on the prime minister's mind, we do not know. But it feels like the government wants the country to be prepared for unseen challenges ahead.'
A disruption in the supply of LPG cylinders caused by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting Indian kitchens, leading to restaurant closures, price hikes and a surge in demand for electric cooktops.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations issued a warning noting that the incident took place approximately 15 nautical miles north of Sharjah.
Tensions between Washington, DC and Tehran have reached a boiling point, as a heavy barrage of aerial strikes was reported across multiple locations in Iran on Tuesday.
